|
Naples
Florida Real Estate Blog |
|
New estimate slows Colliers growth rate to 64 percent
By LESLIE WILLIAMS
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Collier County is changing the way it plans for the future.
A new estimate for Collier’s population into the future
shows a slower growth rate than previously anticipated,
possibly reducing the need to expand certain types of
projects for roads and utilities.
Rather than the 77 percent growth anticipated by Collier
County government during the next 22 years, the county’s
new population model calls for 64 percent growth in the
county’s permanent population through 2030.
Based on a recent study, levels of service for everything
from transportation to utilities will be set based on
permanent population numbers, plus a 20 percent increase to
account for part-time residents and visitors.
Collier commissioners unanimously accepted the model at a
recent meeting with little discussion, other than to verify
that the Collier County Planning Commission would have a
chance to reconsider the study in June or July. That’s
when more specific information is expected on the actual
numbers for needed services, such as wastewater treatment
and community park use.
As the new model is put into practice, county staff will
determine whether to realign services or growth plans to
account for the new numbers.
The new population numbers are based on projections provided
by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and
Business Research, which are used outside of census years.
According to Collier County records, the Florida Department
of Community Affairs informed county government that the
previous population methodology employed by county staff was
“not a professionally acceptable population methodology.”
According to numbers from the Bureau of Economic and
Business Research, the 2007 permanent population of Collier
County was 333,858, equating to a seasonal population of
406,882 with the 20 percent adjustment.
That permanent population figure is 1.5 percent lower than
reported by county staff in the 2007 Annual Update and
Inventory Report, when it was listed as 339,068.
The 20 percent figure for seasonal population was obtained
based on facts that the seasonal population rate for 2000
was 23.8 percent over the permanent population.
However, a memo from Planning Commission Director Randy
Cohen reasoned that seasonal homes are never 100 percent
occupied at a given time. Instead, the occupancy of those
seasonal units is assumed to be about 85 percent, bringing
the seasonal increase to a little more than 20 percent.
Other scenarios have the seasonal population adding anywhere
between 17 and 19 percent to the permanent population, but
as the memo states, “Staff was provided direction by
(commissioners) to provide for the worst case scenario with
regard to public utilities.”
The new estimates call for slightly more modest growth than
was predicted in the 2007 Annual Update and Inventory
Report, with permanent population in 2030 predicted at
548,900, an 8.3 percent reduction from the 598,500 residents
anticipated.
In the near-term, the 2010 permanent population is
anticipated at 353,900, 6.7 percent less residents than the
379,200 listed in the 2007 report.
**************
Collier County permanent population* growth predictions
2007 333,858
2010 353,900
2015 406,300
2020 455,300
2025 503,300
2030 548,900
2025 591,200
* To determine seasonal population, the county will add 20
percent to each year’s permanent population
Source: Collier County records, UF Bureau of Economic and
Business Research
|
|
Foreclosure restricts future home financing
WASHINGTON May 28, 2008 Homeowners going through
foreclosure today may have to wait five years before they
are able to get financing for a home again.
Thats according to new federal guidelines from the Federal
National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Mortgage
Corp., otherwise known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
And after those five years, a borrower would have to have a
Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) credit score of 680 and put 10
percent down, said Leslie Swart, managing partner and senior
loan officer at Blue Skye Lending in Lakewood Ranch.
A FICO score ranges from 300 to 850 points and factors in
things like length of credit history, how timely a person is
in paying his or her bills and how much an individual has in
debt versus available credit, according to Bankrate.com.
About 27 percent of the nation falls into the 750-799
scoring range, according to FICO. The smallest category 2
percent has scores of 499 or less.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, theyre actually tightening up
those restrictions that much more, Swart said. The
pendulum has swung to the other extreme.
The move has come about as a result of soaring foreclosures
in the nation, mostly linked to subprime mortgages that have
left the financial sector in disarray.
Banks and lenders, many of which have written down billions
of dollars in bad loans, are less willing to take risk in
the subprime aftermath. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the
largest purchases of loans sold by banks and lenders on the
secondary market.
Traditional mortgage companies also are looking at credit
qualifications with more scrutiny, Swart said.
Whats interesting is, it used to be we could say anything
(credit score) over 700 or 720, youre golden, Swart said.
But some lenders are pricing their (annual percentage)
rates differently at higher FICO levels. You can still get
financing in the high 600s, but your rates are better if
youre 720 or plus.
Bottom line: Homeowners should do everything they can to
avoid foreclosure, either through renegotiating the loan
with the bank or arranging a short sale of the property.
Foreclosure and bankruptcy will affect your credit in a
real negative manner, said Mike Rahn, production manager
with CNL Bank in Sarasota. A short sale will affect it less
than that.
A short sale involves the bank agreeing to let the borrower
sell the property for less than what he or she owes on the
mortgage. The bank ends up saddled with the loss on the
mortgage.
A seller could negotiate a short sale with the bank and it
could have little or no impact on their credit, Rahn said.
Most banks evaluate whether to allow a short sale on a
case-by-case basis, he adds.
Manatee County court records suggest banks may be more
willing to cooperate with borrowers as the foreclosure
fallout continues.
Out of 2,528 foreclosure suits filed in 2007, 328 or
roughly 13 percent were dismissed, suggesting borrowers
were able to make repayment or short sale arrangements with
lenders.
The worst thing you can do is merely walk away from a home
being foreclosed on, said Tracey Starrett, an attorney with
the Law Offices of Paul A. Blucher in Bradenton.
Doing so doesnt necessarily let one off the hook for his or
her obligations to the lender, she said.
A lot of times, Starrett said, if the bank decides that
theyre not going to be satisfied with just getting the
property back and they want to sue on the note as well
because theres a deficiency, meaning youre upside down,
they can file a summary judgment for a deficiency and come
after you for that. So a lot of times, a foreclosure may
lead to bankruptcy.
Your credit score takes the biggest hit with bankruptcy.
Foreclosure is second. A short sale is a lesser hit.
A banks decision to pursue a deficiency judgment is also
typically made case by case, said John Hanlon, assistant
vice president of commercial lending with Community Bank in
Bradenton.
If a borrower has other potential assets or a way to repay
and the banks going to suffer a loss, we want to get back
as much as we can, Hanlon said. I think a lot of banks are
trying to work things out with the borrower. The bank
doesnt want to take the property back, obviously.
Copyright 2008 The Bradenton Herald, Fla., Brian Neill and
Melissa Followell. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune
Information Services. |
Is Housing Slump at a Bottom?
May 6, 2008 7:28 p.m.
Is it time, at long last, to head
down to Florida to start looking at homes?
Maybe.
And the nearby chart shows one
reason why.
![[Chart]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-BK089_ROI_HO_20080506180141.jpg)
It comes from Wellesley College
Prof. Karl E. Case, one of the leading experts on the housing
market in the country. And it suggests we may be at, or near,
the bottom of the housing crash.
Of course, even if he's wrong we
won't know for sure for many months.
But new housing starts have at
last slumped below the seemingly magical one million mark. That
happened in March. Every time that has happened in the last 50
years, it proved to be the bottom of a recession.
"It is really remarkable how much
where we are today looks like the bottom we've had in the last
three cycles," Mr. Case says. "Every time we've gone below a
million starts, the market has cleared at that moment."
There is no guarantee this market
will be the same but the similarities with the past are
striking. Each boom peaked at around the same level of 2.5
million starts as well.
"It's bottom-fishing time, I
think," says Mr. Case. "There's got to be bargains in Florida,
Arizona and Nevada."
Mr. Case isn't alone in his
analysis. A hedge-fund manager made a similar case in Tuesday's
dead-tree edition of the Journal. Bill Wheaton, legendary real
estate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
was quoted here nearly two months ago suggesting some fears
about the real estate crash were overdone.
And it was in January that I
cited my favorite market source, a private portfolio manager in
London, who said the homebuilding stocks on Wall Street were at
last a buy.
Those stocks have rallied more
than 50% on average from that month's lows. Share price
movements are often thought to anticipate events in the real
economy by around six to nine months: If that is the case here,
it would suggest actual real-estate prices will bottom sometime
over the coming months.
Incidentally, contrarians will
also love Tuesday's gloomy first quarter news from leading
homebuilding
D.R. Horton
and from federally sponsored home loan giant
Fannie Mae.
Both announced massive losses following write-downs. Fannie is
holding a $4 billion cash call and both slashed their dividends.
You often see these kinds of capitulations at a market bottom,
though of course you can see them on the way down as well.
It's important to note that
real-estate prices in many areas are far from a historic
bargain. And where there is a glut, prices -- obviously -- are
likely to stay lower for longer. It is still a buyer's market.
If you are buying, drive a hard bargain.
Prices may still fall further.
Yet if you are tempted to keep waiting for homes to get a lot
cheaper, there are several reasons to think that might not
happen.
First, there are too many other
bargain hunters out there.
Second, the falling dollar has
made these homes even cheaper to foreign buyers. There are
plenty of people in Europe for whom Florida is now a bargain.
Third, interest rates are low
right now. I hesitate to give my fellow Americans any extra
incentive to borrow yet more money, but you can get a 30-year
fixed-rate mortgage under 6%. If the economy recovers that won't
last. If you are shopping for a home, it is probably worth
seeing if you can lock in one of these rates cheaply.
Finally, in an age of weak
currencies and rising inflation, "real" or "hard" assets are in
demand. That should include land, bricks and mortar. Sure, real
estate isn't as cheap as it has been at other times in the past.
But are Florida homes any more expensive these days than steel,
or copper, or gold? I'm not so sure.
Write to Brett
Arends at
brett.arends@wsj.com
|
Home Buyers, Start
Your Engines
May 14, 2008
11:23 a.m.
If you
were thinking of buying a home, start looking.
The
latest data from the housing market shows that sellers,
after months and years in denial, are finally giving in
to reality and slashing prices.
There is
a distance still to go. There may even be a lot to go.
But the process, long delayed, is now well underway.
The
National Association of Realtors on Tuesday released its
long-awaited report on prices from the first quarter.
The price drops were startling.
In many
of the former hot spots, from Florida to Nevada to the
Californian "Inland Empire," single-family home prices
plunged by 20% to nearly 30% in a year.
Even
more remarkable was how far prices had fallen just from
the previous three months. In greater Las Vegas, for
example, single-family home prices are down about 20%
compared to the first quarter of 2007 and about 9%
compared to last fall. In certain parts of California,
the quarter-on-quarter declines are more than 10%. And
there are similar pictures from Boston, Mass., to
Tucson, Ariz., to, well, lots of places in Florida.
Nationwide, the decline from the previous quarter was
about 5%, says the NAR.
And
this, ultimately, is good news. We know prices have to
fall. The sooner it happens, the quicker the market can
clear.
We may
not be at that stage known on Wall Street as
"capitulation," but there is more than a whiff of it in
the air.
Far too
many people in the real estate market have spent far too
long insisting that denial is just a river in Egypt.
They refused to accept there was a bubble on the way up,
and refused to admit it even on the way back down.
(There's a few still out there: Last week I got an angry
email from a broker who blamed the whole slump on "the
media".)
It is
simply remarkable how slow this bubble has been to
deflate. That, bluntly, is part of the problem.
In the
Las Vegas area, for example, NAR data shows single home
prices peaked in early 2006. Yet by the middle of last
year, when everyone and their Aunt Sally already knew we
were deep into the biggest housing bust since the Great
Depression, prices had only been cut by around 4%.
No
wonder sales volumes collapsed and the number of unsold
homes skyrocketed.
You can
imagine what fantasies the sellers were clinging to.
"Well, two years ago this home was worth half a million
bucks."
The
problem: So what? It doesn't matter what prices were
three or two years ago. We were in a bubble. Market
psychologists call this "anchoring", because people
anchor their expectations to the past, and it's a
fallacy.
Just
five years ago, the same home sold for $270,000 and 10
years ago just $200,000. Are those relevant anchor
points too?
Fact:
Even though Las Vegas single family home prices are down
about a quarter from their peak, NAR data shows they are
still nearly 45% above their levels in early 2003.
The
picture is similar in other former hot spots.
It
remains to be seen how much further prices have to fall.
As
always, quality and scarcity command a premium. But
remember that a burst bubble is still a burst bubble and
everything is affected.
Cisco
Systems is a top quality technology company with real
profits, but its shares still fell about 80% in the
dotcom crash.
There is no desperate rush to buy real estate. (The best
way to play the real estate crash was to buy the
homebuilding stocks when they bottomed out in January,
as
written in this column at the time.)
But
sellers have at least returned to the bargaining table.
If you are in the market for a home, it is time,
cautiously, to take a look and, maybe, see if you can
play, "Let's Make A Deal." |
Housing market recovery on track
in Collier, slower in Lee
By LAURA LAYDEN
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Renowned Florida economist Hank
Fishkind spoke the words Naples Realtors and brokers
wanted to hear.
The housing markets hit bottom in
Collier County and home prices arent going to drop
anymore, he said Thursday in a talk organized by the
Naples Area Board of Realtors. The markets are not
eroding further, said Fishkind, principal of
Orlando-based Fishkind & Associates.
Prices have flattened out and if
they were going to fall any more that would have
happened in the last six months, he said.
However, he said it will take
another six to 12 months for sales volumes to really
start improving in the Naples area.
In Lee and Charlotte counties, the
recovery is going to take longer because there are
higher inventories of unsold homes, Fishkind said. In
those counties, there was more overbuilding because land
prices were so much cheaper, he said.
While he described the condominium
market in Florida as a disaster generally because
there has been so much overbuilding, he said its not as
bad in the Naples area because the scarcity of land and
high land prices have limited new development.
He described the unsold inventory
of new homes in Collier County as fairly small.
In February, a little more than
200 existing single-family homes sold at an average
price of $540,000 in Collier County, according to deed
records, Fishkind said. There were more than 100 new
single-family homes that sold for an average price of
$375,000.
About 50 new condominiums sold for
an average price of $350,000, and about 175 existing
ones sold for an average price of $425,000 in February,
he said.
Basically prices are the same as
in 2006, Fishkind said.
He predicts that it will be
years before prices go up again.
Fishkind also touched on job
losses and foreclosures in Collier County.
As of March 8, the county had lost
about 7,400 jobs year-over-year. In Lee County, there
were 11,000 jobs lost in the same 12 months. Fishkind
called it ugly, but said he believes the worst is
over.
Statewide, more than 77,000 jobs
have been lost in the last year. Many were in
construction. Builders have been forced to make cutbacks
with the slowdown in residential and commercial
construction, and some have gone bankrupt.
Collier has been hard hit because
its economy isnt diversified and its main drivers are
construction and tourism, Fishkind said.
Employment growth is going to be
modest at best over the next few years, he said. On the
foreclosure front, there have been 1,600 single-family
foreclosure filings in Collier since the beginning of
the year. In all of 2007, there were 1,500, Fishkind
said.
For condominiums, there have been
400 foreclosure filings so far this year, almost as many
as for last year.
I think ultimately we will start
to see that peak and then level off. Its a reflection
of all the adjustable rate mortgages coming due, said
Russ Weyer, a senior associate with Fishkind &
Associates, in an interview after the talk.
Lee County filings have already
showed signs of stabilizing, he said.
The decline in housing starts will
bottom out in 2008, but dont expect them to skyrocket
again like Mount Everest, Fishkind said.
The housing correction, high
energy prices and federal cuts in interest rates all
point to a national recession, he said.
He doesnt expect a recovery in
Floridas economy this year. He predicts that the
population wont start growing again until next year.
When people start spending more that will make the
difference, he said. That could happen in a few months
when millions of taxpayers receive economic stimulus
checks from the federal government.
More than 200 people attended
Fishkinds presentation, held at NABORs office off Pine
Ridge Road. It was a record showing for a NABOR
quarterly luncheon.
John Zagar, president for Stock
Realty in Naples, said Fishkind reaffirmed his own
thoughts about the turning market.
At Lely Resort, one of Stock
Constructions communities off U.S. 41 East, there were
160 sales in the first three months of this year,
compared to about 100 for all of 2007, he said.
Arlene Carozza, NABORs president,
said after the boards March report showed a sharp spike
in pending sales the members started feeling the worst
was behind them. Though the busy winter season
traditionally ends at Easter, local Realtors continue to
be busy with more open houses, showings and closings,
she said.
Usually by this time Naples is
cleared out, Carozza said. People are staying and
buying.
To see Hank Fishkinds full
report, visit www.fishkind.com.
|
If a spike in January
sales at the Bonita Bay Group is a sign of
things to come, Southwest Floridas real
estate market could be nearing bottom.
Last month, the Bonita
Springs-based developer had 28 sales in four
of its communities, more than double the
number it had in January 2007.
Gary Dumas, Bonita Bay
Groups regional general manager, said a
combination of factors pushed up January
sales, including lower mortgage rates,
better prices and more buyer incentives,
such as discounts on golf memberships.
I think there is more
value relative to prices and certainly that
is bringing some of the buyers in, he said.
Prices have dropped
anywhere from 15 percent to 20 percent from
a year ago. But more than that, some buyers
are just tired of waiting for the market to
hit bottom, Dumas said.
What people are
buying is not just homes, but buying this
lifestyle we offer. At a certain point of
time, people want to get on with their
lives, he said.
The 28 sales were
valued at $13.7 million. They included
single-family homes and home sites, coach
homes and villas in Verandah in Fort Myers,
Mediterra in North Naples, Sandoval in Cape
Coral and TwinEagles in Naples.
Dumas said hes heard
from other builders and developers that
traffic is up and that the readiness of the
prospective buyers seems to be better than
a year ago.
Everything right now
compared to last year seems very, very
positive, he said.
But one month doesnt
make a trend, Dumas said.
The Naples Area Board
of Realtors reported that pending sales in
December were 275, down by two units from a
year ago, giving Realtors hope of a better
season this year.
Wes Brodersen, a
broker with EXIT Gulder Real Estate on
Bonita Beach Road, said hes just finished
the best week hes had in the past 2
years.
My agents are a lot
busier. A couple of them are even smiling.
Things are improving, Brodersen said.
He thinks the market
already has hit bottom, but others dont
agree.
I dont think weve
totally hit that bottom yet, said Russ
Weyer, a senior associate with Orlando-based
economic and financial consulting firm
Fishkind & Associates.
He does believe that
certain parts of the market may have reached
bottom.
Bonita Springs is
actually doing fairly good, Weyer said.
Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are the two
weakest areas at the moment.
Collier County hasnt
been hit as hard as Lee County, where there
was a bigger frenzy of investment buyers in
2004 and 2005.
Lehigh Acres and Cape
Coral are among the top markets for
foreclosures in the country, Weyer said.
In a recent report,
Fishkind & Associates predicted that a
recovery in the new single-family home
market in Collier County wouldnt be seen
until 2009 and that the average price was
expected to remain constant through 2010.
In Lee County, the new
single-family home market bottomed out with
around 1,400 new home closings in 2007, down
from 5,500 closings in 2005, according to
the report.
A slight rebound in
the existing single-family home market is
projected this year in Collier, but in Lee
thats not expected to happen until the end
of 2010.
The condominium market
in both counties is expected to remain
sluggish, with so many units on the market,
according to the report.
We will make the turn
again and Florida will be a popular place to
be, Weyer said. They dont make the warmth
and sunshine like they do here in other
parts of the country.
|
|
NAR: Worst is over existing-home
sales to trend up in 2008
WASHINGTON Dec. 11, 2007 Existing-home sales are
projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales
showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest
forecast by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before
2009.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the worst part of
the credit crunch has already worked its way through the
data. The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in
August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were
finalized in September and October, so the market was
underperforming, he says. Now that mortgage conditions
have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in
existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I
expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking
indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased
0.6 percent to an index of 87.2 from an upwardly revised
reading of 86.7 in September. It was the second consecutive
monthly gain, but still 18.4 percent below the October 2006
index of 106.8. The broad trend over the coming year will
be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales
are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total
sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007, Yun
says.
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 16.0 percent in October to
80.6 but is 11.1 percent below a year ago. In the West, the
index rose 8.4 percent to 87.3 but is 16.9 percent lower
than October 2006. The index in the Midwest slipped 1.4
percent in October to 85.5 and is 11.7 percent below a year
ago. In the South, the index dropped 7.8 percent in October
to 91.6 and is 25.3 percent below October 2006.
The improvement in the Northeast reaffirms a trend apparent
for some months now that shows signs of recovery, noteworthy
because that was the first region to slump, and the gain in
the West indicates some easing of interest rates for jumbo
loans, Yun says. Lawmakers need to understand that raising
the loan limits on FHA and GSE-backed conventional loans
will markedly improve mortgage availability.
Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this
year, the fifth highest on record, rising to 5.70 million in
2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home
prices should be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600
for all of 2007, and then rise 0.3 percent to $218,300 in
2008.
Home price growth in the vast affordable midsection of
America will help raise the national median existing-home
price slightly in 2008. I then expect price appreciation to
return to more normal patterns in 2009, perhaps rising one
or two percentage points above the rate of inflation, Yun
says.
Even with a modest decline in the national aggregate price
this year, its important to keep in mind that nearly
two-thirds of the metro areas in the U.S. are showing price
increases, he said. The apparent disparity results from
fewer sales in high-cost markets, so a change in the mix of
sales is dragging down the national median home price.
Areas showing healthy price gains include disparate markets
such as Gary-Hammond, Ind.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Corpus
Christi, Texas; and Spokane, Wash. We cant emphasis enough
how much local conditions vary, even within a given area, so
its important for consumers to make decisions based on
local market conditions.
New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000
in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; no sustained
improvement is seen for new homes until 2009. Because
builders have correctly adjusted production, housing starts,
including multifamily units, will probably total 1.36
million this year and 1.16 million in 2008, down from 1.80
million last year. The median new-home price is projected to
drop 3.0 percent to $239,100 for 2007, and then decline
another 0.2 percent to $236,600 in 2008.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to rise slowly
to the 6.4 percent range by the end of 2008, with additional
cuts in the Fed funds rate lowering short-term interest
rates.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be
2.1 percent in 2007, down from a 2.9 percent growth rate
last year; GDP growth is forecast to improve to 2.4 percent
in 2008.
The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent for
2007, unchanged from last year, but rise to 5.0 percent in
2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index,
will probably be 2.8 percent this year and 2.7 percent in
2008, down from 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted
disposable personal income is estimated to grow 3.1 percent
this year, the same as in 2006, and then grow 2.2 percent
next year.
2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
|
Home sales forecast brighter
in 07
WASHINGTON March 12, 2007
Anyone selling a home in
the past year has likely
suffered through some pretty
stormy markets, but
economists say a break in
the clouds may be on the
way.
Thats because since the
highly anticipated real
estate bubble began
deflating in mid-2005, has
been losing air for the past
year and a half and may
finally be out of air. And
while some markets suffered
through some deep slumps,
forecasters are now
predicting the worst may be
over.
It appears we are getting
very close to bottom, says
David Lereah, chief
economist for the National
Association of Realtors.
Lereah is one of several
economists who agree that
sales data show the national
existing home sales market
is on the verge of regaining
ground.
Sales have hovered for the
last four months, scratching
bottom and then coming up,
scratching bottom and coming
up again. We are comfortable
this is now the bottom, he
says.
But before you put away that
umbrella, it might be best
to check your local
forecast; scattered showers
may persist in certain
markets for at least another
year.
Over the past few months,
Lereah says 75 percent of
the nations housing markets
have expanded. Unfortunately
the ones that are still
falling are posting losses
large enough to bring the
national numbers down with
them.
So, you cant generalize.
You cant say We are in
this sharp recession, when
it is only 25 percent of the
markets that are losing
ground, Lereah says.
What makes the current
housing slump so hard to
forecast is that the factors
driving the contraction are
different than those driving
past slowdowns, says Dave
Seiders, chief economist for
the National Association of
Home Builders.
You have to put this in
context, he says. This is
not a downswing connected to
a recession. This one is
special because the drivers
are unusual.
In previous contractions,
the entire economy hit a
bumpy patch, and mortgage
rates were in double digits,
Lereah says.
This is not the case now,
he says.
The primary problem now
plaguing the housing market
is one of oversupply, rather
than a general economic
malaise. In general, the
markets that are suffering
the most now are the ones
that benefited the most
during the run-up in prices.
Markets that boomed in the
last five years boomed too
much, and now they are
coming down, Lereah says.
Prices were high, and
builders responded by adding
a flood of new homes to the
market. When prices
continued to rise, investors
saw potential and bankrolled
even more homes. When buyers
stopped buying, the markets
that flew the highest had
the farthest to fall.
Molly R. Boesel, a Fannie
Mae economist, wrote in a
February commentary that
sales will likely post
another negative year in
2007, but that most of the
decline is expected from a
reduction in investor
demand. Consumers, on the
other hand, will likely jump
back into the market.
The Federal Open Market
Committee of the Federal
Reserve agreed when it
issued its Jan. 31
statement. In that
statement, governors said
they were encouraged by
tentative signs of
stabilization in the
housing market.
These are the first stages
to getting the markets back
into balance, Seiders says.
But even as consumers get
back in a buying mood,
housing markets wont
necessarily spring back to
previous heights. Part of
the reason is because there
is still a large inventory
on the market, Lereah says.
One way economists rate
homes sales is by
calculating how many months
it would take to sell all
the homes listed for sale at
the current buying rate. At
last count, Lereah says it
looked like there were
between 6.8 months and 7
months worth of homes
sitting on the market right
now. He says that number
will likely fall to between
6.6 months and 6.5 months
worth by year end. But that
is still above the 5.5- to
6-month inventory that
signals a balanced market.
Looking foreword, Lereah
says 2007 will likely see an
additional 1 percent fall in
sales compared with 2006
numbers, meaning sales will
have hit bottom and begun to
rebound by year-end.
We are not looking for a
big expansion, but it will
be an expansion a
sluggish expansion, he says
|
|
|
Big Plans
- 22,000 Acre Big Cypress
Wednesday,
September 27, 2006
In the 1920s, New York
advertising magnate Barron Gift Collier began carving
civilization out of a wilderness that would become Collier
County. Some 80 years later, the company that traces its roots
to that pioneer is at it again, with plans to found a new town,
dubbed Big Cypress, east of Golden Gate Estates.
Collier Enterprises wants to
build some 25,000 homes in a new town and in a scattering of
smaller villages and hamlets on 8,000 acres of farmland
surrounded by 14,000 acres of preserve. The project would take
25 to 30 years to build. Work wont get started until at least
2010, Collier Enterprises CEO Tom Flood said.
Big Cypress, along with its
neighbor, Ave Maria University and its companion town, are
products of a landmark 2002 growth plan that requires landowners
to preserve and restore land to earn credits for development.
The 22,000-acre Big Cypress
district is more than 34 square miles about twice the size of
the city of Naples and represents an unprecedented blank slate
to plan for growth in Collier County.
The company is planning public
workshops to get community input on the Big Cypress plans after
a kickoff event in late October. Details still are being
planned.
The workshops would focus on
land conservation, agriculture, parks, schools, economic
development, roads and housing, according to the company.
Flood said the goal of the
companys planning is to make Big Cypress a self-sustaining town
that fits with the rural character of eastern Collier County.
We dont see this as a
bedroom community of Naples, Flood said. We see this as a
place for people to live and work.
The center of the town would
be built in the middle of a loop created by a realignment of Oil
Well Road and an extension of Randall Boulevard. Immokalee Road
and Golden Gate Boulevard also would provide access to Big
Cypress.
Plans dont include hooking up
the Vanderbilt Beach Road extension to Big Cypress. Some Golden
Gate Estates residents had blamed the need for the controversial
extension on the Collier company plans.
Flood said the extension is
not driving our thinking at all and that it would be fine
with him if the extension never hooks up to Big Cypress.
Plans propose a conceptual
alternative interchange at Interstate 75 (Alligator Alley) with
a new road that would meander north, through Big Cypress to
Immokalee Road.
The conceptual alternate
location is about two miles east of the spot of a proposed I-75
interchange at Everglades Boulevard, which would have to be
widened to six lanes, putting it through residents yards and
driveways, Flood said.
The conceptual road through
Big Cypress would wind past six villages, each with up to 1,000
acres. Plans also show two hamlets, each with up to 100 acres.
Flood said the company wants
to create a 23-mile walking trail that would connect the
villages and lend a rural twist to the project.
Besides the 14,000 acres of
preserve within the district boundaries, Collier Enterprises
also will have to preserve 13,000 acres beyond the new town to
earn enough development credits under the 2002 growth plan.
Collier County Audubon Society
policy advocate Brad Cornell said the Big Cypress plans still
must overcome questions about size and compatibility with
surrounding land, including habitat for the endangered Florida
habitat and woodstork.
They (the Big Cypress plans)
are big; theyre really big, Cornell said. In every respect
its big, and theres a lot of questions left unanswered in my
mind.
For example, Cornell said he
wants to know more about how the company will mitigate the
effects of its proposed interchange at I-75.
Cornell said the mitigation
should involve buying up panther habitat in Golden Gate Estates
between North Belle Meade and the Florida Panther National
Wildlife Refuge.
Another question is where
Collier Enterprises will set aside the additional 13,000 acres
it needs to earn development credits under the 2002 plan.
Were still mulling the road
and how to optimize (the mitigation) for environmental benefit,
Florida Wildlife Federation field representative Nancy Payton
said.
Overall, though, the plans are
within the scope of the 2002 growth plan and thats a good
thing, Payton said.
She said environmental groups
who backed the 2002 plan didnt anticipate that new towns would
start popping up so quickly. That also means preserve land is
getting set aside more quickly.
It is seeing our county
change quicker than wed like to see it change, but were
prepared we have a plan, she said.
The next step is to embark on
what Flood says is a genuine effort to get input from the towns
neighbors. The biggest neighbor is Golden Gate Estates.
I think residents of Golden
Gate Estates will be interested in what were doing and I hope
theyll conclude that were going to be good neighbors, Flood
said.
Golden Gate Estates Area Civic
Association President Mark Teaters said, from what hes heard so
far, the company is making the right moves.
Teaters acknowledges, though,
that Collier Enterprises might face a skeptical crowd in Golden
Gate Estates residents who fear their rural lifestyle is
slipping away.
Its not ever going to be the
same, Teaters said. Things are going to change.
Some changes will be for the
better, Teaters said.
He said Big Cypress plans will
bring commercial services closer and help solve traffic problems
in the Estates.
Immokalee community leader
Fred Thomas said the plans make all the sense in the world.
It will help focus everyones
attention on making Immokalee the industrial hub of Collier
County, Thomas said.
At the same time the company
is touting plans for Big Cypress, the company is unveiling plans
for a 580-acre expansion of an industrial park and 470-acre
moderately priced housing development southeast of the Immokalee
Airport.
The company also is talking
with Collier County officials about speeding up planning for a
bypass road around Immokalee, Flood said. He said Collier
Enterprises is willing to provide land it owns for a link in the
bypass. The road also would pass through land owned by Barron
Collier Cos. and Consolidated Citrus.
Its time to get a shovel in the
ground, Flood said.
|
Home buying will stay strong, real estate executive says
Analyze national and local real estate sales and prices from
a 100-year perspective and recent trends are really very
promising, Coldwell Banker leaders said Thursday at a two day
company conference at the
RitzCarlton Beach Resort, Coldwell Banker President and Chief
Executive Officer Jim Gillespie said the real estate market may
be a little off this year, but the numbers are still
impressive.
Some of the (newspaper)
headlines dont really tell the story, Gillespie said. Real
estate may be off 7.6 percent from the previous year, but it was
coming off the industrys best year in history, Gillespie said.
Founded just after the 1906
San Francisco earthquake, Coldwell Banker is celebrating its
100th anniversary in the real estate business Reacting to trends
predicted this week by National Association of Realtors, a trade
organization representing 1.3 million members, Gillespie said he
is still bullish on the future of real estate.
Addressing U.S. Senate
housing, transportation and economic policy subcommittees on
Wednesday, NAR President Thomas M. Stevens said housing prices
are expected to drop throughout the end of the year, and will
become more of a buyers than sellers market.
After five years of
outstanding growth, the housing market is undergoing a period of
adjustment and becoming more and more of a balanced market
between buyers and sellers, said Stevens, according to a news
release posted on the NAR Web site.
NAR forecasts a total 8
percent drop in home sales for 2006, followed by another 2
percent decline in 2007. Increases in sales prices will be
minimal, according to NAR: less than 3 percent in 2006 and 2007.
In 2005, national resales totaled 7.1 million, Gillespie said
Thursday. Thats not new home sales which were about 1.2 to
1.3 million but resales, he stressed. In 1995, the U.S. hit 4
million resales. In 2000, the nation saw barely 5 million
resales.
Last year was the fifth year
in a row for record resales, Gillespie said. What real estate
brokers will see this year is still the third best year in
history, Gillespie said. The real estate market will continue to
remain strong because of newly emerging markets, he said. There
are some 78 million baby boomers around the country, and theyve
discovered real estate as an investment, Gillespie said.
Also, consider the 1.2 to 1.4
legal immigrants who want to buy homes, minorities and single
women, and the fact that interest rates are near historic lows.
The willing buyers are there, he said. Noting that housing
markets vary from state to state, Stevens told senators that
one-third of the nations population will actually face
increasing home prices, including Alaska, New Mexico, Vermont
and some Southern states.
However, the states that
experienced the greatest increases in home prices in the recent
past will see significantly lower sales, Stevens said. That
includes Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and Virginia.
Asked to address Southwest Floridas affordable housing
concerns, Gillespie said he believes that if a Coldwell Banker
real estate agent searched hard enough, he or she would probably
be able to find a home for most.
But buyers may have to trade
on some priorities, such as longer commutes to work, and might
have to talk to family to get a loan, he said. He and Budge
Huskey, president and chief operating officer for Coldwell Bank
Florida residential real estate, also conceded that in every
market there are going to be hopeful buyers who will be priced
out. Im not going to suggest everyone is going to be able to
own (but) prices are beginning to stabilize, Huskey said.
Acknowledging that the local
markets are challenged by affordable housing, theres still a
demand for the high-end products, said Charles Richardson,
Coldwells senior vice president and regional manager for
Southwest Florida. Local sales numbers and prices seem to buck
the trend, Richardson pointed out.
The average sales price in
Naples has actually gone up, he said. While in the past two
months the median sales price in Collier County has decreased,
year over year, real estate professionals in 2006 are still
doing better than last year, Richardson said. Gillespie and
Huskey stressed a point NARS officials emphasized this week.
The national apartment rental
market multifamily housing is benefiting from weaker home
sales as potential home buyers remain in rental housing. Vacancy
rates in the fourth quarter are expected to average 5.2 percent,
down from 6.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2005. It was
not immediately clear Thursday whether Southwest Floridians will
be able to enjoy that trend. Average rent is projected to
increase 4.8 percent in 2006, compared with 2.9 percent last
year.
|
|
NAR: Home prices expected to fall for remainder of 2006
WASHINGTON -- Sept. 14, 2006 -- Housing prices will have a
limited fall throughout 2006, according to testimony submitted
by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) at yesterday's
Senate Banking Committee hearing on the economy. In addition,
NAR noted that the sellers market is transitioning to a buyers
market, which can be healthy for some local economies.
"For the past five years,
the housing market has been a steadfast leader in the U.S.
economy," Thomas M. Stevens, president of NAR, told the Senate
Subcommittee on Housing and Transportation and the Senate
Subcommittee on Economic Policy. "After five years of
outstanding growth, the housing market is undergoing a period of
adjustment and becoming more and more of a balanced market
between buyers and sellers."
Stevens said that home
prices nationwide are still showing slight appreciation --
though less than 1 percent -- where over the past few years
homes were appreciating at double-digit rates. "While recent
developments raise concern, it is important to remember that the
housing market varies significantly across the country," said
Stevens. One-third of the country (by population) is still
seeing rising home prices, including Alaska, New Mexico, Vermont
and many states in the South, excluding Florida. States that
experienced the greatest increases in home prices in recent
years are experiencing significantly lower sales, such as
Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and Virginia.
"Contrary to many reports,
there is not a 'national housing bubble,'" said Stevens. "We
were seeing home prices and mortgage debt servicing
cost-to-income ratios increase to unhealthy levels in some
housing markets, which precipitate an adjustment." Also
contributing to the cooling housing market is an increase in
mortgage rates of nearly one point, speculative investors
pulling back and first-time buyers being priced out of the
market.
Adjustments to the housing
market are not unique and can often times be necessary, said
Stevens. In addition to the rapid appreciation of years past,
the rise in mortgage rates affects a homebuyers ability to
finance and purchase a home. "Pressure is being felt in the
housing market due to rising mortgage rates," said Stevens.
"With rising interest rates, homebuyers have become exhausted
financially which explains why sales have tumbled in
higher-priced regions of the country."
NAR forecasts a drop in home
sales of around 8 percent in 2006, followed by another 2 percent
decline in 2007. These numbers are based on the stabilizing of
mortgage rates and modest expansion of the economy. Also
predicted is that home price growth will be minimal -- less than
3 percent in 2006 and 2007. However, NAR warns that a
significant shift in interest rates or a change in the economy
would change this forecast. NAR notes that a soft landing is
possible under the right circumstances and affordable mortgage
financing is an important component in achieving this.
"Because the housing market
strongly supports the economy and drives consumer spending, it
is imperative that the Congress adopt policies that encourage
homeownership and make purchasing a home obtainable for the
millions of families who desire to own a home of their own. NAR
stands ready to work with Congress to continue to open the door
to the American dream of homeownership," said Stevens.
In 2005, the housing sector
directly contributed more than $2 trillion to the national
economy, accounting for 16.2 percent of the economic activity,
according to the NAR testimony.
2006 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION
OF REALTORS
|
|
Ave
Maria gets go-ahead from Army Corps of Engineers
Wetlands permit paves way for
town, university to eventually cover about 5,000
acres of fields, pastures south of Immokalee
Ave Maria University and its
neighboring town have cleared their last big
hurdle with federal environmental permitting
agencies.
The U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers wetlands permit gives the go-ahead for
the university and town to eventually cover some
5,000 acres of farm fields and pastures south of
Immokalee.
The Army Corps issued a permit
in 2005 for a first phase that is already under
construction northwest of the intersection of
Oil Well and Camp Keais roads. People could
start moving into the town in mid-2007. The
campus is set to open in fall 2007.
Barron Collier Cos. and
Domino's Pizza founder Tom Monaghan are partners
in developing Ave Maria, which is generating
international buzz about Monaghan's conservative
religious beliefs. Ave Maria is the first Roman
Catholic university to be built in the United
States in more than 40 years.
The federal permit review was
strictly earthbound and weighed concerns about
wetlands destruction, water quality and habitat
for the endangered Florida panther and Audubon's
crested caracara, a threatened falcon-like bird.
Barron Collier Cos. vice
president for real estate Blake Gable said the
company is doing right by the environment,
preserving or restoring some 17,000 acres in
return for Ave Maria approvals.
"It's been a long process, and
this is another step along the way," Gable said
Monday. "We feel very confident in what we've
done."
Environmental groups were
divided over the Ave Maria permit, which the
Army Corps issued Aug. 14.
In letters to the Army Corps,
the Florida Wildlife Federation, Audubon of
Florida and the Collier County Audubon Society
lauded Ave Maria's plans to preserve or restore
panther and caracara habitat under the county's
Rural Lands Stewardship Area growth plan.
Barron Collier Cos. CEO Paul
Marinelli serves as a member of Audubon of
Florida's board of directors.
"This project is a godsend for
wildlife," said Florida Wildlife Federation
field representative Nancy Payton.
Payton cited wildlife
crossings proposed to be built under Oil Well
Road and Immokalee Road east of Immokalee, the
preservation of land in the Camp Keais Strand
that conservationists have targeted for saving
for decades and a buffer along 11 miles of the
northern boundary of the Florida Panther
National Wildlife Refuge.
The Conservancy of Southwest
Florida didn't send a letter backing the permit,
but Conservancy President Andrew MacElwaine said
the group doesn't oppose Ave Maria.
In another letter, though,
Defenders of Wildlife said the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service's review contained "egregious
flaws" and that the Army Corps permit does not
require sufficient mitigation.
Defenders also contends that
the county's growth plan does not replace the
Army Corps' duty to protect endangered and
threatened species.
"... (The county's growth
plan) provides cover for unprecedented
development that will have far-reaching and
long-term impacts for the panther and other
imperiled species, impacts that are not
adequately offset by the proposed mitigation,"
the group wrote.
"FWS and the corps cannot
permit this type of destructive development to
move forward," the letter says.
Laurie Macdonald, Florida
director for Defenders of Wildlife, said the
group spoke with Ave Maria planners about
overall concerns about habitat and roads in the
region but had not met about specific
recommendations.
She said she has not reviewed
the permit but that if mitigation requirements
are not adequate, the group will make
suggestions to the developer about improvements
or still could challenge the permit.
"We hope it won't come to that
(a lawsuit over the permit)," Macdonald said.
The permit for Ave Maria,
which meets state criteria as a Development of
Regional Impact, envisions a mid-sized
university with 6,000 students and hotels,
offices, shops, schools, medical facilities,
parks, playing fields, stadiums, a 27-hole golf
course and an 18-hole championship golf course.
The Army Corps permit
authorizes the destruction of 23 acres of the
site's 114 acres of wetlands. In return, Ave
Maria is creating a 103-acre | |
